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AUGUST 20,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:16 P.M. ET:

ANOTHER VOICE FOR MADNESS – Another Senate Democrat has pledged to support the Iran nuclear agreement.  From AP:  On Thursday, Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., became the latest to declare her backing, saying in a statement: “This deal isn’t perfect and no one trusts Iran, but it has become clear to me that the world is united behind this agreement with the exception of the government of Israel.” Nobody expects Claire McCaskill to say anything intelligent.  She was elected after being written off, only because the GOP committed electoral suicide by nominating a nut case to oppose her.  Her statement is an outrageous slur, singling out Israel.  How can she say that the world is united behind the agreement with the exception of the Israeli government, when the entire Republican Party, presumably part of the world, is against it?  As are most Arab nations.  They may issue pro forma statements of support to stay on good terms with Obama, but virtually all the reporting from the Mideast reveals their true feelings.  McCaskill must be defeated next time around.

POOR HILLARY, THEY'RE ALL AGAINST HER – From The Politico:   A federal judge has added fresh fuel to the incendiary controversy over Hillary Clinton’s email, asserting during a hearing Thursday that she violated government policy by storing official messages on a private server when she worked as secretary of state.  “We wouldn’t be here today if this employee had followed government policy,” said U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan, apparently referring to Clinton, during a hearing on one of the many Freedom of Information act lawsuits seeking access to her records as secretary of state.  This judge, a Bill Clinton appointee, is not on Hillary Clinton's short list for the Supreme Court.

IT'S COME TO THIS – From CNN: Jon Stewart has traded jabs with some of the biggest names in U.S. politics during his 16-year year tenure as host of "The Daily Show." Now, thousands want him to moderate a presidential debate.  Over 100,000 people have signed a Change.org petition that wants the satirical host to moderate a 2016 presidential debate.  One of those signers is Martin O'Malley, the former Maryland governor who is seeking the Democratic presidential nomination.  "Over the last 16 years, Jon Stewart has played an influential and iconic role in covering U.S. politics and media," the petition reads. "We believe he should continue that tradition as a moderator at one of the 2016 Presidential Debates."  Next we'll have Don Rickles as a commentator.  Might be an improvement.

FASCINATING – From AP:  WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Two men in Poland claim they have found a legendary Nazi train that according to local lore was loaded with gold, gems and valuable art and vanished into a system of secret tunnels as the Germans fled advancing Soviet forces at the end of World War II.
Historians say the existence of the train has never been conclusively proven, but authorities are not passing up this chance at possibly recovering treasures that have sparked the imaginations of local people for decades.
"We believe that a train has been found. We are taking this seriously," Marika Tokarska, an official in the southwestern Polish district of Walbrzych, told The Associated Press on Thursday.  She said her office has received two letters this month from a law firm representing the men, a Pole and a German who are remaining anonymous, saying they are seeking 10 percent of the value of the train's contents for revealing its location.  Utterly fascinating.  We'll follow the story.  I'm surprised the men are only asking 10 percent.  They must have gotten their training in a Hollywood talent agency.

August 20, 2015       Permalink 

SOON TO BE A MAJOR MOTION PICTURE – AT 11:36 A.M. ET:  This is speculative commentary, but informed speculation.  Monica Crowley paints an intriguing picture of the relationship between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.  From the Washington Times: 

There is only one person who controls Hillary Clinton’s fate, and it isn’t Hillary Clinton.

Mrs. Clinton is careening toward possible criminal charges involving her alleged mishandling of classified material on her personal email server while she was secretary of State. And President Obama is driving the bus.

She and her team have, of course, reverted to form, blaming everyone but themselves: a “right-wing conspiracy,” The New York Times, overzealous investigators. What they are missing, however, is the one figure who wants her taken out politically, and who has the power to do it.

She and Mr. Obama have a long history as frenemies. Recall Mr. Obama’s rejoinder at a 2008 debate, when Mrs. Clinton touted her likability: “You’re likable enough.” Or recall President Bill Clinton’s famous put-down of Mr. Obama: “A few years ago, this guy would have been getting us coffee.”

Beyond the bad blood, however, Mr. Obama has a more important reason for doing her in. As I have written previously, he needs a successor he can control. Over the years, including recently, he has waxed rhapsodic over a possible third term to continue his “fundamental transformation of the nation.” Mrs. Clinton will not provide it; therefore, she must be sidelined.

If Mr. Obama does not want an investigation to go forward, it does not go forward. Witness the scandals involving the Internal Revenue Service, Benghazi, Veterans Administration and Operation Fast and Furious gunrunning.

And...

Gen. David Petraeus, who was prosecuted for mishandling classified material in much more innocuous ways, claimed to a source of mine that Mrs. Clinton faces a “very tough legal environment.” Particularly, if Mr. Obama used the Petraeus prosecution to set the precedent to prosecute Mrs. Clinton: “I’m so sorry about this, but my hands are tied. The law is the law.” (It would be the first time in his presidency that the “law is the law,” but that’s another matter.)

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing, and Crowley's prediction of who will be on the Democratic ticket.  As I said, it's speculation, but it makes sense.

August 20,  2015     Permalink

HEAT IN KOREA – AT 9:46 A.M. ET:   Is it entirely coincidental that this is happening at a time when America is flashing "weakness"?  From AP: 

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea fired dozens of shells Thursday at rival North Korea after the North lobbed a single rocket round at a South Korean town near the world's most heavily armed border, the South's Defense Ministry said.

The Defense Ministry said in a statement that its artillery shells landed at the place where North Korea had fired its rocket. There were no other immediate details from the military and no reports of injuries. It appeared that North Korea did not respond to South Korea's returned fire.

North Korea had previously threatened to attack South Korean loudspeakers that have been broadcasting, for the first time in 11 years, anti-Pyongyang propaganda messages across their shared border. Pyongyang also restarted its own loudspeakers aimed at the South.

About 80 residents in the South Korean town where the shell fell, Yeoncheon, were evacuated to underground bunkers, and authorities urged other residents to evacuate, a Yeoncheon official said, requesting anonymity because he wasn't authorized to speak to the media.

In the nearby border city of Paju, residents were asked to stay home. On Baeknyeong Island near the Koreas' disputed western sea boundary — the scene of several bloody skirmishes in recent years — residents in villages near a site where South Korea operates one of its loudspeakers were also evacuated, according to island officials.

The cross-border propaganda warfare followed accusations from Seoul that Pyongyang had planted land mines on the South Korean side of the Demilitarized Zone that maimed two South Korean soldiers earlier this month. Pyongyang has claimed that Seoul fabricated the evidence on the land mines and demanded video proof.

Authoritarian North Korea is extremely sensitive to any criticism of the government run by leader Kim Jong Un, whose family has ruled since the country was founded in 1948.

Last October, North Korean troops opened fire at areas near Yeoncheon, after South Korean activists launched balloons there that carried propaganda leaflets across the border. South Korea returned fire, but no casualties were reported. Later in October, border guards from the two Koreas again exchanged gunfire along the border, without any casualties.

Before that, the Koreas tangled in a deadly artillery exchange in 2010, when North Korean artillery strikes on a South Korean border island killed four South Koreans. Earlier in 2010, an alleged North Korean torpedo attack killed 46 South Korean sailors.

North Korea's army said recently in a statement that the South Korean propaganda broadcasts were a declaration of war and that if they were not immediately stopped "an all-out military action of justice" would ensue.

COMMENT:  American troops are, correctly, stationed in South Korea.  They act as a tripwire.  If the North invades the South, its soldiers will face Americans, and North Korea will be at war with the United States.

Or will it?

Will Obama actually act, or will he run to the UN and pull back American troops, giving the North an incentive?  Isn't it remarkable that we can't answer that question with any certainty? 

What is going on in the minds of the North's military leaders?  Do they sense an opportunity, with a weak American president?

This is a time when chickens may actually come home to roost.

August 20, 2015       Permalink

THE TRUMP MOMENT – AT 8:56 A.M. ET:  Look, there's no doubt about it.  This is Donald Trump's moment.  Whether he comes out as a winner, or a flash-in-the-pan, he's sucking the air out of the room.   He also appears to be gaining in popularity, although some pundits feel he's peaking, and will rise no further.  From the Sun-Sentinel: 

Donald Trump is surging in Florida, and has dethroned former Gov. Jeb Bush from his perch as the top candidate of Florida Republicans. For Democrats, the luster is coming off Hillary Clinton, who has lost a quarter of her support in the last nine weeks.

Those are the topline takeaways from new Quinnipiac Polls out Thursday.

On the Republican side, it isn't that Bush has slipped. He's at 17 percent among Florida Republicans, compared to 20 percent in the June 18 Quinnipiac Poll. That dip is within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, meaning it's statistically unchanged.

Trump, a part-time Palm Beach resident, has attracted lots of support since the last poll, clearly benefiting from massive news media attention to his style and ideas. He stands at 21 percent among Republicans – up sharply from his 3 percent on June 18 – which puts him in a lead similar to what many polls have shown nationally and in early primary states.

Florida's other favorite son candidate, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, is down. He had support of 11 percent of Florida Republicans in the new poll, down from 18 percent in June.

Ben Carson, the pediatric neurosurgeon who retired to West Palm Beach, is enjoying a boomlet of his own. He's at 11 percent in the new survey, up from 7 percent in June.

And...

Clinton, long a favorite in Florida is way down among the state's Democrats. She was at 48 percent support in the new poll, down from 64 percent in June.

COMMENT:  I was watching Trump on TV last night.  In his rational moments, he's actually quite articulate and convincing.  The problem is his egotistical moments, which will eventually turn off many voters.  He tends to ramble, to be uninformed, and often to have only vague solutions.

As for Hillary, her fate probably lies in the hands of the FBI.  If her case heads for an indictment, she's gone.  But what if she's exonerated?  If the feds can't indict her, she can claim victory, even though those same feds might find that she's been grossly irresponsible in handling national secrets. 

Remember, in the end the press will be for her.  It has to be.  It is controlled by remnants of the 60s generation, which will want to see another "first."  First black president.  First woman president.  That the world is in flames and American influence collapsing is of no interest to that crowd.  Only "the first" is.

August 20, 2015       Permalink

THE RIDICULOUS AGREEMENT – AT 8:16 A.M. ET:  Latest disclosures about the Iran nuclear agreement make it clear that it's worse than we ever imagined.  From The Wall Street Journal:

Three more Senators have declared against President Obama’s Iran nuclear deal in recent days, and don’t be surprised if more follow after Wednesday’s bombshell from the Associated Press. The news service reports that Iran will be allowed to use its own inspectors at the secret Parchin nuclear site under its secret side agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

This is a new one in the history of arms control. Parchin is the military complex long suspected as the home of Iran’s nuclear-weapons and ballistic-missile development. The IAEA has sought access to Parchin for more than a decade, and U.S. officials have said the deal requires Iran to come clean about Parchin by agreeing on an inspections protocol with the IAEA by the end of this year.

But that spin started to unravel three weeks ago with the discovery that the Parchin inspections were part of a secret side agreement between the IAEA and Iran—not between Iran and the six negotiating countries. Secretary of State John Kerry has said he hasn’t read the side deal, though his negotiating deputy Wendy Sherman told MSNBC that she “saw the pieces of paper” but couldn’t keep them. IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano has told Members of the U.S. Congress that he’s bound by secrecy and can’t show them the side deals.

That secrecy should be unacceptable to Congress—all the more so after the AP dispatch. The news service says it has seen a document labelled “separate arrangement II.” The document says Iran will provide the IAEA with photos and locations that the IAEA says are linked to Iran’s weapons work, “taking into account military concerns.”

In other words, the country that lied for years about its nuclear weapons program will now be trusted to come clean about those lies. And trusted to such a degree that it can limit its self-inspections so they don’t raise “military concerns” in Iran.

Keep in mind that the side deal already excludes a role for the U.S., and that the IAEA lacks any way to enforce its side deal since it has no way of imposing penalties for violations. Iran has also already ruled out any role for American or Canadian nationals on the inspection teams.

COMMENT:  This is the doing of John Kerry, who betrayed his comrades in Vietnam, and Barack Obama, a kind of Manchurian Candidate.  I don't think they've given any reason to trust them. 

But I don't think many Senate Democrats have enough backbone to buck the president on this matter.  Sadly, most political observers believe that the deal will go through.  The price will be paid long after Obama leaves office, writes a book for a multi-million-dollar advance, and trashes his country even more.

August 20,  2015     Permalink

AUGUST 19,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET:

ST. LOUIS INCIDENT – Trouble in the gateway city.  From Fox:  Nine people were arrested and St. Louis police used tear gas to clear a street of protesters after an armed man fleeing from officers serving a search warrant was shot and killed Wednesday.  Approximately 150 people gathered at the scene of the shooting late Wednesday, many of them hurling obscene gestures and expletives at investigators and questioning the police use of deadly force. St. Louis Police Chief Sam Dotson said tear gas was used after protesters threw glass bottles and rocks at police. Some chanted "Black Lives Matter," a mantra used a year ago after the police shooting death of 18-year-old Michael Brown in nearby Ferguson.  The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that a vacant home had been set on fire near the scene. Dotson also said that officers were responding to reports of burglaries in the area.  I hope the "news" organizations get facts right before reports go to the public. 

EMBARRASSING – From The Wall Street Journal:   Buyers of luxury condos have a new place to park their cash: in their parking spots.  In cities like San Francisco, New York and Boston, parking prices have reached an all-time high. At least two new developments in Manhattan are asking $1 million for a single parking spot. Condominium developers are touting parking spaces with glossy brochures and promotional videos, marketing the small patches of concrete as luxury amenities.  I think even passionate supporters of free enterprise are getting disgusted with this kind of excess. 

HE'LL PROBABLY BLAME BUSH – From CNN:   Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts (CNN) Ten years after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans, President Barack Obama will visit the city next week to tour neighborhoods and meet with families still recovering from the devastation.  He'll meet with Mayor Mitch Landrieu to discuss rebuilding efforts and deliver remarks promoting economic innovation in the storm's aftermath, the White House said Wednesday.  When Obama took office in 2009, the effects of the storm four years earlier were still readily seen in New Orleans, where entire neighborhoods were condemned after flooding.  What a waste of taxpayers' money.  Obama is really going to draw attention to what his cronies charge was President Bush's negligence in handling Katrina.  In fact, Bush did a fine job.  It was the local mayor and governor who failed miserably.  But the liberal press made Bush into the scapegoat and has never corrected the story.

August 19, 2015       Permalink

WHO WE FIGHT – AT 11:35 A.M. ET:   What is ISIS?  This is ISIS.  From London's Daily Mail:

Depraved militants fighting for the Islamic State in Syria have brutally murdered an 82-year-old retired archaeologist because he refused to tell them where gold and ancient statues were hidden.

The family of Khaled Asaad are said to have been told that the retired scholar, who worked for more than 50 years as head of antiquities in Palmyra, was beheaded by ISIS yesterday.

Mr Asaad had been detained and interrogated for over a month by the ultra-radical Sunni Muslim militants, who demanded to know where many of the ancient city's priceless artifacts had been taken in the days before and after ISIS took control of the city.

Sickening images proudly shared on social media by supporters of the terror group showed the mutilated remains of Mr Asaad chained to a railing, with his severed head - still wearing glasses - placed on the floor between his feet.

COMMENT:  We look forward to the reaction of Western "scholars" to this despicable act.  Don't expect much. 

We're supposedly fighting ISIS, but the latest reports say that we've actually made little progress.  This will probably be another fight that Obama kicks down the road to the next president.

August 19, 2015       Permalink

CARLY RISES – AT 10:54 A.M. ET:  Carly Fiorina is rising in the ranks of GOP presidential contenders.  We know this from the most scientific test available:  Carly was viciously attacked by The New York Times yesterday.  A vicious assault on a GOP candidate by The Times is the surest sign that he or she is heading upward.   From The Politico: 

Carly Fiorina is in an all-out sprint to keep the momentum going at the polls in hopes of making it into CNN’s varsity debate next month, with recent numbers showing she’s gripping onto that stage by her fingertips.

Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO who has never held political office, got a boost on Tuesday as a CNN/ORC poll put her at 5 percent support, bumping Chris Christie out of the top 10.

CNN is taking the average of surveys released by 13 major polling operations between mid-July and Sept. 10 to determine the top 10 participants for the main event, while the remaining candidates who score at least 1 percent across their three best polls will participate in an earlier debate.

Pollsters say Fiorina is on track to make it to the big show on Sept. 16, as long as she is able to consistently score higher numbers in more polls.

Fiorina’s camp is trying to not show the sweat on Fiorina’s brow, even as she hustles. They know that one of her biggest liabilities is a lack of name recognition. So even as headlines have sprouted this week, condemning her executive record as far less than sterling, it still keeps Fiorina’s name out there. And after she delivered a commanding performance at the junior varsity Fox News debate earlier this month, Fiorina’s popping up everywhere, from the Iowa State Fair with her folksy plaid shirt and pork chop flipping, to a tour of Nevada and New Hampshire, for a breakneck schedule of town halls, meet-and-greets, and an education summit.

“We’re going to keep meeting with lots of voters, and answering every question,” said Sarah Isgur Flores, deputy campaign manager. “She wanted to introduce herself to voters,” said Flores on the debate response and good polls. “That was the goal. It’s accomplished.”

COMMENT:  It would be outrageous if she were kept off the senior platform next time.  She is the most articulate of any of the candidates, and the only one who has consistently taken on Hillary Clinton.  If she gts her shot, she might well be a contender for the ticket, not necessarily in the top slot, but certainly in the second.

August 19, 2015        Permalink

MORE HILLARY – QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 9:46 A.M. ET:  The great Andrew Malcolm of IBD weighs in on Hillary Clinton's self-inflicted wound, and what the next step might be.  Very well done, and our quote of the day.  From IBD: 

Under media questioning Tuesday, much of it by Ed Henry of Fox News, Clinton was pressed on whether she wiped the server before turning it in, as FBI sources have suggested. She never answered directly. Clinton did not take the Fifth to avoid self-incrimination, often interpreted as virtual admission of guilt.

But in politics her obvious verbal dodges to avoid a clear answer are the same thing. Did she or someone for her wipe the server. "What, like with a cloth or something?"

Such disingenuousness assures continued questions well into the future, ongoing distractions from Democrats' political goal of holding the White House 447 days from now. How long the party's big money people put up with this is an open question before turning to another less-soiled candidate. "Vote For Hillary, Not Convicted of Anything Yet."

But their shoo-in nominee is now under investigation by the FBI, headed by the same guy who prosecuted David Petraeus for also playing loose with classified documents.

It's standard stonewalling and Clintonian dissembling, which might have worked for her husband in the nineties but leaves a different kind of stain now on her bid to get into the Oval Office.

COMMENT:  Very well said.  I'll be watching to see what "Saturday Night Live" does with Hillary.  But, even more important, I'll be watching the White House.  Will the emperor go thumbs up or thumbs down – does Hillary get to be president, or not?  If she does, it will probably be because the emperor buried an investigation, and, boy, will she owe him.

August 19,  2015     Permalink

AH YES, I REMEMBER IT WELL – AT 8:55 A.M. ET: 

"I'm not a crook." – Richard Nixon, November 17, 1973

The e-mail controversy "has nothing to do with me." – Hillary Clinton, August 18, 2015

More and more, Hillary Clinton is being compared to Richard Nixon at Watergate.  And why not?  All Nixon had to do was say, "As leader of my party, I take full responsibility for this break-in, this improper act, and it will never happen again."  He would have come out a hero.  But, no, he just couldn't bring himself to do it, and went down in flames, trying to cover up everything.  And the saying began, "It's not the crime, but the cover-up."

Now Hillary can't bring herself simply to say, "I made mistakes in the handling of sensitive material while secretary of state.  I take full personal responsibility.  It won't happen again."  No guarantees, because this is much more serious than Watergate, but the public is generally forgiving when someone admits an error, or personal failing.  But no, Hillary must prove herself a Yale-educated lawyer.  Her press conference yesterday, which she cut short, was, as Fiorello LaGuardia used to put it, a beaut.  Ron Fournier of National Journal called it the worst press conference Hillary ever gave.  And it was.  And it was Nixonian.

And just as Barack Obama is the second coming of Jimmy Carter, Hillary Clinton may well be the second coming of Richard Nixon.

But her numbers are dropping.  Why do I think she may not even make it to the nomination?

August 19,  2015     Permalink